Differentiating the scale of change: the multilevel structure perspective (draft)

Differentiating the scale of change: the multilevel structure perspective (draft)

The amount of change occurring tends to be exaggerated, sometimes to the point of fear of an “doomsday” event within our lifetime. It can occur in many areas such as politics, climate change health, and technology. This fear is used by some to further their own agenda, such as the mass media; it sells newspapers, politicians, and some scientists wanting money for their research, among many others.

The reality is a little different if considered in a longer time scale. The degree of change now is probably far less than during major periods of disruption, such as during the first and second world wars and their aftermath, during the industrial revolution in Britain in the 1800s. That is not to say there have been significant periods of change in the last few decades; the change in the role of women in the West, the computers (specifically micro-computers such as the personal computer, imbedded computers in cars, phones, and TV) and huge networks of PCs in business and internet), the on-going tension of the West with Islam, to name a few.

Multilevel structure is able to give considerable insight into the way change is perceived. In multilevel structure there is much change at less-fundamental levels, but progressively less change at more fundamental levels.

Change at less fundamental change creates much “noise” but is relatively superficial. Fashion in clothing follows a seasonal pattern each year. Fashion in automobiles has a longer time frame, annual models, new vehicle forms such as sports utility vehicles (SUV) but tends fairly insignificant. The hysteria of a new model Apple iPhone or iPad verges on the ridiculous. The perception of these relatively minor changes are amplified by the mass media who have the ability to report minor events from all over the world, celebrities, accidents, natural disasters, political upheaval and technological change. People feel swamped by change, albeit mainly minor change at less fundamental levels.

Change at more fundamental levels is quite different to minor change. With a multilevel structure, a change at more fundamental level affects all less fundamental levels. Further, the propagation of such change can occur over years or decades; such as has occurred with the changing role of women in the West that started in the 1960s; partially as a result of the contraceptive pill, and the infiltration of computers in our lives that began in the late 1970s with the first microcomputers and personal computers; the Apple II and the IBM PC.

Change at fundamental levels is not necessarily quiet; the events of September 11 2001 in New York, the Global Financial Crisis in 2008 or the election of neo-conservative politicians such as Thatcher or Reagan in the early 1980s, shook much of the world (Black Swan or Outlier events, to be discussed latter). However, the propagation of their effects were emergent over a period of years, as the less fundamental levels of multilevel re-formed based on the change to more fundamental levels.

The problem is that people have trouble differentiating between the uncommon changes at more fundamental levels and the constant changes at less fundamental levels. This difficulty is compounded when small events, the invention of the pill or microcomputer, eventually trigger change at more fundamental levels; the butterfly effect,( to be discussed latter).

Resilience, the ability to weather change, occurs because it is very difficult to change more fundamental levels of multilevel structure. Usually the best prediction of the future is more of the same, with the occasional hiccup, as has been the case in the West since WW II.

Resilience is why a doomsday is unlikely. Even with a significant change to a fundamental level of multilevel structure, the less fundamental levels will evolve and re-form over time. Some climate alarmists suggest horrific changes within fifty years. The more likely outcome is the environment will change and adapt to such slow changes; without the doomsday outcome.

However, sudden major changes can occur. Again with climate change, given the poor understanding of discontinuous climatic events, like the dramatic El Nino-La Nina that have been occurring in the Pacific Ocean periodically since living memory, more dramatic and unpredictable climatic events, like the reversal of sea currents in the Atlantic are possible. These are sudden, unpredictable climatic changes that can, and have occurred in the past.

While resilience or even equilibrium, a common assumption of economists, dramatic changes can occur. This is where fundamental levels of multilevel structure suddenly change, throwing less fundamental levels into disarray.  Even so, the fundamental levels will re-form to a new order and life will go on. In evolutionary biology, such events are known as punctuated equilibrium, long periods of “little change punctuated by short periods of rapid change” at many levels. The emergence of mammals with the demise of dinosaurs after an asteroid impact is a large scale example.

The point of this post is to illustrate how the concept of a multilevel structure gives a means of separating minor and major changes, as well as being aware of the different forms of change and the levels at which they occur or propagate to, such as change at a minor level propagating to a more fundamental level.

PS    One of my intents is to show how many of the ideas of recent management books can be explained within a broader theory; Outliers, Tipping Point, Black Swan, Robustness (forthcoming).